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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 60

Denver Broncos 21 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.39 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP