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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 25

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 28

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 82-T.Tremble INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 11. 2-P.Surtain pushed ob at DEN 39 for 28 yards (17-X.Legette).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model