4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 63

Denver Broncos 28 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to CAR 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 3-R.Blackshear.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.60 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model