Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 83

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 28

(14:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DEN 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 83, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model