Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 28

(8:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to DEN 49 for 8 yards (22-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

What Happened

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.41 EP
63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 57, worth -2.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model