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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 43

Denver Broncos 28 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 14-C.Sutton pass deep right to 20-M.Burton to CAR 15 for 28 yards (56-T.Wallace; 25-X.Woods).

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.57 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model