Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 80

Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 19-T.Taylor punts 68 yards to WAS 12, Center-46-S.Daly. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 33 for 21 yards (44-N.Sewell; 45-A.Ogbongbemiga). FUMBLES (44-N.Sewell), recovered by WAS-26-J.McNichols at WAS 36.

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.80 EP
73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model