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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2024-10-27 · 16:25 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CHI
33.6%
WAS
66.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.176 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Jayden Daniels (WAS) +0.277 vs Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.048 EPA/dropback
  • CHI on 7 more days rest than WAS
  • WAS defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21
–
WAS 26
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CHI

Jaquan Brisker S Out Concussion
Kyler Gordon CB Out Hamstring
Larry Borom T Questionable Ankle
Travis Homer RB Questionable Finger
Jake Martin DE Questionable Toe

WAS

Brandon Coleman T Out Concussion
Dorance Armstrong DE Questionable Rib
Jayden Daniels QB Questionable Rib

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 15
–
WAS 18

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:54 FG WAS (8:54) 3-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. CHI 0 – WAS 3
  • Q1 01:08 FG WAS (1:08) 3-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. CHI 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 05:27 FG WAS (5:27) 3-A.Seibert 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. CHI 0 – WAS 9
  • Q3 05:52 FG WAS (5:52) 3-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. CHI 0 – WAS 12
  • Q3 00:54 TD CHI (:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – WAS 12
  • Q4 00:27 TD CHI (:27) 23-R.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – WAS 12
  • Q4 00:02 TD WAS (:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 85-N.Brown for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 15 – WAS 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 20 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:17) 19-T.Taylor punts 68 yards to WAS 12, Center-46-S.Daly. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 33 for 21 yards (44-N.Sewell; 45-A.Ogbongbemiga). FUMBLES (44-N.Sewell), recovered by WAS-26-J.McNichols at WAS 36.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (8:54) 3-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 57%

    (6:10) 19-T.Taylor punts 32 yards to WAS 9, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (1:08) 3-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (14:12) 19-T.Taylor punts 52 yards to WAS 9, Center-46-S.Daly. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 17 for 8 yards (21-J.Jones).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:05) 10-T.Way punts 39 yards to CHI 20, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:30) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore to CHI 40 for no gain (25-B.St-Juste, 4-F.Luvu).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 97%

    (5:27) 3-A.Seibert 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 16 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 62%

    (10:28) 10-T.Way punts 35 yards to CHI 4, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-69-T.Ott.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:46) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to WAS 44, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus. PENALTY on CHI-92-D.Hardy, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 44.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (5:52) 3-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to WAS 7, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:39) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to CHI 37, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Carter to CHI 41 for 4 yards (35-P.Butler).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 76%

    (14:09) 3-A.Seibert 51 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 15 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:50) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to WAS 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 37%

    (10:35) 10-T.Way punts 34 yards to CHI 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 88 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (4:33) 10-T.Way punts 57 yards to CHI 31, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Carter to CHI 38 for 7 yards (39-J.Reaves; 57-N.Bellore).