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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 39

Washington Commanders 9 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 10-T.Way punts 35 yards to CHI 4, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-69-T.Ott.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.64 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model