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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 29

Washington Commanders 9 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 3-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.62 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model