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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 60

Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to WAS 7, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.63 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model