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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 64

Chicago Bears 7 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(13:50) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to WAS 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.38 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model