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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 8

Washington Commanders 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 3-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.76 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 8, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP