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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 88

Washington Commanders 12 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 10-T.Way punts 57 yards to CHI 31, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Carter to CHI 38 for 7 yards (39-J.Reaves; 57-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.10 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 88, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP