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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 41

Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 19-T.Taylor punts 32 yards to WAS 9, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.70 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model