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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 12

Washington Commanders 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 3-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model