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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 91

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 51 yards to LV 40, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-D.Turner pushed ob at KC 43 for 17 yards (2-J.Williams). PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 43.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.63 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 91, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.94 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 48, worth -2.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model