Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LV offense: -0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- KC offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- KC defense: -0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
KC
LV
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:08 TD KC (10:08) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – LV 0
- Q1 02:42 TD LV (2:42) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. KC 7 – LV 6
- Q2 10:18 FG LV (10:18) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 7 – LV 10
- Q2 02:00 TD KC (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – LV 10
- Q2 00:08 FG KC (:08) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 17 – LV 10
- Q3 06:44 FG LV (6:44) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 17 – LV 13
- Q4 08:48 FG KC (8:48) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 20 – LV 13
- Q4 05:03 TD KC (5:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – LV 13
- Q4 02:07 TD LV (2:07) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 19-D.Turner for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-G.Karlaftis]. KC-23-D.Tranquill was injured during the play. KC 27 – LV 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 15 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(1:05) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to LV 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-D.Turner.
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Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 70%
(10:18) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(1:06) 6-A.Cole punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.
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Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:39) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to KC 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-M.Hardman to KC 30 for 21 yards (45-T.Eichenberg; 53-A.Gainer). PENALTY on KC-21-J.Hicks, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at KC 15.
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Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(12:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 51 yards to LV 40, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-D.Turner pushed ob at KC 43 for 17 yards (2-J.Williams). PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 43.
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Q3 LV 4th & 14 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 96%
(6:44) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 99%
(3:31) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at KC 8 for -5 yards (98-T.Wharton).
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Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(8:48) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 32 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 78%
(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 19-D.Turner to KC 26 for 6 yards (6-B.Cook).