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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 3

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(3:31) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at KC 8 for -5 yards (98-T.Wharton).

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 3, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model