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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 32

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 19-D.Turner to KC 26 for 6 yards (6-B.Cook).

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.64 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model