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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to LV 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-D.Turner.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model