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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 78

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 42-E.Evans punts 42 yards to MIN 36, Center-47-A.Ward. 4-B.Powell to MIN 42 for 6 yards (19-X.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.95 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 35, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model