Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LA defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- LA offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- MIN defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
MIN
LA
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:48 TD MIN (10:48) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 84-J.Oliver for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – LA 0
- Q1 06:42 TD LA (6:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – LA 6
- Q1 00:58 TD MIN (:58) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-T.Sherfield for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – LA 7
- Q2 10:11 TD LA (10:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 14 – LA 13
- Q3 06:25 FG MIN (6:25) 16-W.Reichard 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 17 – LA 14
- Q3 02:40 TD LA (2:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-D.Robinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-1-S.Griffin, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. MIN 17 – LA 20
- Q4 12:51 FG MIN (12:51) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 20 – LA 21
- Q4 06:23 TD LA (6:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – LA 27
- Q4 01:42 SAF LA (1:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (0-B.Young). MIN 20 – LA 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(9:16) 17-R.Wright punts 61 yards to LA 8, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for 4 yards (11-T.Sherfield).
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Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(4:56) 42-E.Evans punts 42 yards to MIN 36, Center-47-A.Ward. 4-B.Powell to MIN 42 for 6 yards (19-X.Smith).
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Q2 MIN 4th & 16 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(2:57) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to LA 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 36%
(:42) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to MIN 5, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith. PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at MIN 5.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%
(6:25) 16-W.Reichard 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 17Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 94%
(12:51) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 29Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 83%
(9:20) 23-K.Williams right tackle to MIN 26 for 3 yards (2-S.Gilmore).
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Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 46 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 46%
(1:53) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to MIN 5, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.