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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(:42) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to MIN 5, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith. PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at MIN 5.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.45 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 50, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model