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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 29
Los Angeles Rams 21 – Minnesota Vikings 20
What Actually Happened
(9:20) 23-K.Williams right tackle to MIN 26 for 3 yards (2-S.Gilmore).
The Three Options
GO
+2.53 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.24 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.07 EP
KICK
+1.30 EP
- 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
- 17% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT
-0.04 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
