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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 21

New York Giants 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 34-G.Joseph 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.89 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.20 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model