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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Monday 2024-10-28 · 20:15 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

NYG
32.4%
PIT
67.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Russell Wilson (PIT) -0.074 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.148 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19
–
PIT 24
Projected margin: PIT by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NYG

Jamie Gillan P Out Right Hamstring
Adoree' Jackson CB Out Neck
Ty Summers LB Out Ankle
Cordale Flott CB Doubtful Groin
Jermaine Eluemunor T Questionable Hip
Tre Hawkins CB Questionable Ankle

PIT

Zach Frazier C Out Ankle
Nick Herbig LB Out Hamstring
Roman Wilson WR Out Hamstring
Dylan Cook T Out Foot
Tyler Matakevich LB Out Hamstring
Cordarrelle Patterson RB Doubtful Ankle
Justin Fields QB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 18
–
PIT 26

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:23 FG PIT (10:23) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. NYG 0 – PIT 3
  • Q1 05:23 FG NYG (5:23) 34-G.Joseph 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack. NYG 3 – PIT 3
  • Q1 03:08 FG PIT (3:08) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. NYG 3 – PIT 6
  • Q2 12:43 FG NYG (12:43) 34-G.Joseph 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack. NYG 6 – PIT 6
  • Q2 08:15 FG PIT (8:15) 9-C.Boswell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. NYG 6 – PIT 9
  • Q2 00:25 FG NYG (:25) 34-G.Joseph 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack. NYG 9 – PIT 9
  • Q3 04:58 TD PIT (4:58) 38-M.Haack punts 54 yards to PIT 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-C.Austin for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-45-T.Fox, Illegal Formation, declined. NYG 9 – PIT 15
  • Q4 13:22 TD PIT (13:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 19-C.Austin for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – PIT 22
  • Q4 11:16 TD NYG (11:16) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left guard for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 15 – PIT 23
  • Q4 07:19 FG PIT (7:19) 9-C.Boswell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. NYG 15 – PIT 26
  • Q4 05:10 FG NYG (5:10) 34-G.Joseph 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack. NYG 18 – PIT 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (10:23) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (5:23) 34-G.Joseph 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (3:08) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 82%

    (14:20) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at PIT 23 for 5 yards (31-B.Bishop).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 91%

    (12:43) 34-G.Joseph 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (8:15) 9-C.Boswell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (6:53) 38-M.Haack punts 45 yards to PIT 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to NYG 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 85%

    (:25) 34-G.Joseph 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:45) 8-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to NYG 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at NYG 26 for 2 yards (42-J.Pierre).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 17 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:58) 38-M.Haack punts 54 yards to PIT 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-C.Austin for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-45-T.Fox, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:39) 38-M.Haack punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (7:19) 9-C.Boswell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 79%

    (5:10) 34-G.Joseph 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 48%

    (2:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 36 yards to NYG 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.