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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 9

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 9-C.Boswell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 9, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model