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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 63

New York Giants 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 38-M.Haack punts 45 yards to PIT 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.98 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP