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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to NYG 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.03 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model