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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 26

New York Giants 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(:25) 34-G.Joseph 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.12 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model