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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 79

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 8-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to NYG 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at NYG 26 for 2 yards (42-J.Pierre).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model