Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 81

New York Giants 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 38-M.Haack punts 54 yards to PIT 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-C.Austin for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-45-T.Fox, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.76 EP
73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model