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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 11

New York Giants 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 34-G.Joseph 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP