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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 61

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 1-J.Hurts left guard to PHI 41 for 2 yards (57-G.Pratt; 91-T.Hendrickson).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 20, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model