Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CIN offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.176 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CIN defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- PHI offense: -0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
PHI
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:03 TD CIN (5:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – CIN 6
- Q2 14:14 FG PHI (14:14) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 3 – CIN 7
- Q2 09:36 FG CIN (9:36) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. PHI 3 – CIN 10
- Q2 00:25 TD PHI (:25) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (92-B.Hill; 74-L.Guy). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – CIN 10
- Q3 10:40 TD PHI (10:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – CIN 10
- Q3 04:19 TD CIN (4:19) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – CIN 16
- Q3 02:51 TD PHI (2:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 23 – CIN 17
- Q4 13:39 FG PHI (13:39) 4-J.Elliott 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 27 – CIN 17
- Q4 04:41 TD PHI (4:41) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 33 – CIN 17
- Q4 02:00 FG PHI (2:00) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 37 – CIN 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%
(14:14) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 97%
(9:36) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(8:49) 1-J.Hurts left guard to PHI 41 for 2 yards (57-G.Pratt; 91-T.Hendrickson).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 27%
(6:43) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 67%
(5:13) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to CIN 37 for -2 yards (33-C.DeJean).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 77%
(13:39) 4-J.Elliott 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 17 at the 30 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 79%
(2:00) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.