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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model