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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.46 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model