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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 2

Denver Broncos 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(7:21) (Shotgun) 14-C.Sutton pass short right to 10-B.Nix for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.24 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 2, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model