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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2024-11-03 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

DEN
22.4%
BAL
77.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.211 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.315 vs Bo Nix (DEN) -0.088 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.183 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BAL defense: +0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 21
–
BAL 29
Projected margin: BAL by 8 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DEN

P.J. Locke S Out Thumb
Delarrin Turner-Yell S Out Knee

BAL

Brent Urban DE Out Concussion
Rasheen Ali RB Out Ankle
Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Questionable Knee
Keaton Mitchell RB Questionable Knee
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Knee
Travis Jones DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 10
–
BAL 41

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:23 TD BAL (2:23) 22-D.Henry right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 12:07 FG BAL (12:07) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. DEN 0 – BAL 10
  • Q2 07:21 TD DEN (7:21) (Shotgun) 14-C.Sutton pass short right to 10-B.Nix for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – BAL 10
  • Q2 03:54 TD BAL (3:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – BAL 16
  • Q2 00:58 FG DEN (:58) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 10 – BAL 17
  • Q2 00:27 TD BAL (:27) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – BAL 23
  • Q3 09:41 TD BAL (9:41) 22-D.Henry left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – BAL 30
  • Q3 01:25 TD BAL (1:25) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 42-P.Ricard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – BAL 37
  • Q4 12:53 FG BAL (12:53) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. DEN 10 – BAL 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 16 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 54%

    (12:20) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to DEN 2, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 49%

    (6:21) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams right end to BAL 43 for 1 yard (21-B.Stephens; 0-R.Smith). Baltimore challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams right end to BAL 44 for no gain (21-B.Stephens; 0-R.Smith).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 75%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Franklin.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%

    (12:07) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (7:21) (Shotgun) 14-C.Sutton pass short right to 10-B.Nix for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 17 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (:58) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to BAL 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to BAL 40, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 16-T.Wallace to DEN 39 for 21 yards (45-N.Adkins, 9-R.Dixon).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 93%

    (12:53) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (8:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:30) 11-J.Stout punts 58 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-M.Mims to DEN 40 for 18 yards (80-I.Likely).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to BAL 1 for 9 yards (2-N.Wiggins; 29-A.Washington).