Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 71

Denver Broncos 10 – Baltimore Ravens 31

(7:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to BAL 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model