4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 44

Denver Broncos 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams right end to BAL 43 for 1 yard (21-B.Stephens; 0-R.Smith). Baltimore challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams right end to BAL 44 for no gain (21-B.Stephens; 0-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.77 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model