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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Denver Broncos
4th & 4 at the 33
Denver Broncos 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7
What Actually Happened
(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Franklin.
The Three Options
GO
+0.76 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
- 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.82 EP
KICK
+0.42 EP
- 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
- 25% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT
-0.25 EP
- Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
