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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 75

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to NYJ 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.13 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model