Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- HOU offense: -0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- NYJ defense: -0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
HOU
NYJ
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 03:25 TD HOU (3:25) 28-J.Mixon left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – NYJ 0
- Q3 09:09 TD NYJ (9:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 5-G.Wilson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Hunter]. HOU 7 – NYJ 6
- Q3 04:16 FG HOU (4:16) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 10 – NYJ 7
- Q4 13:01 TD NYJ (13:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 5-G.Wilson. New York Jets challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 5-G.Wilson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – NYJ 13
- Q4 03:02 TD NYJ (3:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – NYJ 20
- Q4 00:42 FG HOU (:42) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 13 – NYJ 21
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 48%
(12:52) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to NYJ 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.
-
Q1 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 98Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(11:51) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to HOU 47, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
-
Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(6:29) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to HOU 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 82-S.Sims MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at HOU 13.
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(3:58) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to NYJ 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(13:23) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to NYJ 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(11:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 75 yards to HOU 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-29-J.Bernard-Converse.
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(1:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to HOU 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 14 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 60%
(:27) 15-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(:12) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
-
Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 34%
(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at HOU 31 for 17 yards (23-E.Murray). NYJ-17-D.Adams was injured during the play.
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 15Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%
(10:29) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to NYJ 13 for 2 yards (56-Qi.Williams).
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%
(6:57) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 49 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 32%
(1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right end ran ob at NYJ 24 for 25 yards (35-J.Mills).