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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 38

Houston Texans 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:27) 15-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.52 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model