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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 98

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to HOU 47, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -4.07 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.12 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 98, worth -6.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 53, worth -2.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model