4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 49

Houston Texans 10 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right end ran ob at NYJ 24 for 25 yards (35-J.Mills).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.97 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model