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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 69

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to HOU 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 82-S.Sims MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at HOU 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model