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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Minnesota Vikings
4th & 1 at the 44
Minnesota Vikings 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7
What Actually Happened
(7:59) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to IND 42 for 2 yards (99-D.Buckner).
The Three Options
GO
+1.53 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.09 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
KICK
-0.43 EP
- 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
- 49% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT
-0.53 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
